Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atletico-MG's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Atletico Paranaense's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (0.90x) against Atletico-MG's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
44%
2.30
28%
3.56
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Atletico-MG xG
Total xG
2.68
1.17
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
6%
15.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Atletico-MG and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 1.17 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.