Atletico Goianiense 1-2 Criciuma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Criciuma at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma meet at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 19 June 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Atletico Goianiense (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Atletico Goianiense haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Atletico Goianiense have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 1.16 xG and Criciuma 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.798 / defence 1.378 | Criciuma attack 1.071 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.168. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Atletico Goianiense games / 7 Criciuma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 24% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 49%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Criciuma 2.04. Criciuma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Criciuma as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Criciuma if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jun 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 24% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Atletico Goianiense 1.16 / Criciuma 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.798 / def 1.378 | Criciuma attack 1.071 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Criciuma (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Criciuma xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 19 June 2024 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma?
Atletico Goianiense 1 - 2 Criciuma.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 24% chance of winning, Criciuma a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Criciuma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atletico Goianiense's attack at 0.80x the league average against Criciuma's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Criciuma's attack (1.07x) against Atletico Goianiense's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 9/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Criciuma Win
24%
4.10
26%
3.78
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
2.89
1.73
Criciuma xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
4%
23.01
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.73 for Criciuma, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Pre-Season
Criciuma
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Atletico Goianiense
0
Draws
2
Criciuma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma?
From 2 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Criciuma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2024, when Criciuma 2-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma?
Criciuma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Criciuma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Criciuma edge out Atletico Goianiense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Criciuma beat Atletico Goianiense 1-2 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 1.16 xG and Criciuma 1.73 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.80 / defence 1.38 against Criciuma attack 1.07 / defence 1.17, drawn from 9/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 24% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 49%, with Criciuma to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.