America Mineiro 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to take on America Mineiro. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, America Mineiro have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, America Mineiro have posted 1W 3D 3L at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio — 0.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fluminense — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: America Mineiro 1.00 PPG, Fluminense 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
America Mineiro in-play and half-time data (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 46% versus Fluminense 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 23% | Fluminense 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 0.65 xG and Fluminense 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.721 / defence 1.041 | Fluminense attack 0.792 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 0.879 / away 1.063. America Mineiro's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 America Mineiro games / 13 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 25% | Draw 36% | Fluminense 39%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | Fluminense 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — America Mineiro's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 29% | Fluminense 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 25% | Draw 36% | Fluminense 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG America Mineiro 0.65 / Fluminense 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.721 / def 1.041 | Fluminense attack 0.792 / def 1.019 | league avg home 0.879 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Fluminense xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Fluminense kick off?
America Mineiro vs Fluminense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Fluminense?
America Mineiro 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is America Mineiro vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Fluminense part of?
America Mineiro vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 25% chance of winning, Fluminense a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both America Mineiro and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Fluminense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are America Mineiro and Fluminense in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Fluminense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates America Mineiro's attack at 0.72x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus America Mineiro's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (17.5%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
25%
3.96
36%
2.78
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
1.52
0.88
Fluminense xG
3.96
25%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.60
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
52%
1.91
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.8 | 19.1 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.4%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.88 for Fluminense, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, America Mineiro have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 2W 5D 6L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense's form line: 4W 5D 4L from 13 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fluminense are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against America Mineiro.
Venue Form
On home soil, America Mineiro have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
America Mineiro are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 0.77 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Fluminense in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Fluminense away?
Fluminense's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 0.86 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.29 PPG.
Have America Mineiro or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
America Mineiro have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Fluminense in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fluminense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Fluminense won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
America Mineiro's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
America Mineiro
1
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Fluminense?
From 6 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 2, Fluminense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Fluminense 3-1 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fluminense tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 29%, Fluminense 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for America Mineiro and 29% for Fluminense.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro have failed to score in 57% of games; Fluminense in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 43% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of America Mineiro's recent games and 29% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Fluminense tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as America Mineiro defy the odds to beat Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Fluminense 1-0 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 0.65 xG and Fluminense 0.88 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fluminense landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.72 / defence 1.04 against Fluminense attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 25% | Draw 36% | Fluminense 39%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a America Mineiro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 45% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 23% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 23%, Fluminense 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Fluminense's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with America Mineiro winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.