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Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Zulte Waregem.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Zulte Waregem 1-4 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.20 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.08 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.08 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.02 / defence 0.80, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 36% | Draw 33% | Union St. Gilloise 31%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 61%, Union St. Gilloise 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights