Zulte Waregem 4-0 RAAL La Louvière – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RAAL La Louvière at 40%, yet in-form Zulte Waregem provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RAAL La Louvière make the trip to Elindus Arena to face Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Group - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Zulte Waregem (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Elindus Arena, Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RAAL La Louvière have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
RAAL La Louvière away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Zulte Waregem. A 0.60 PPG lead over RAAL La Louvière (1.30 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, RAAL La Louvière in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zulte Waregem lead 2W to 0W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
RAAL La Louvière — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 63% versus RAAL La Louvière 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 58% | RAAL La Louvière 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.19 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.852 / defence 1.063 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.951 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Data: 30 Zulte Waregem games / 30 RAAL La Louvière games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 33% | Draw 27% | RAAL La Louvière 40%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | RAAL La Louvière 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RAAL La Louvière are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zulte Waregem (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RAAL La Louvière if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 60% | RAAL La Louvière 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Group - 34 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 33% | Draw 27% | RAAL La Louvière 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.19 / RAAL La Louvière 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.852 / def 1.063 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.951 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: RAAL La Louvière (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.34
RAAL La Louvière xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Zulte Waregem 4 - 0 RAAL La Louvière.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière part of?
Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière is a Relegation Group - 34 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 33% chance of winning, RAAL La Louvière a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RAAL La Louvière the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière?
Record (5 meetings): Zulte Waregem 2W | Draws 3 | RAAL La Louvière 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.85) and RAAL La Louvière's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RAAL La Louvière's attack (0.95x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RAAL La Louvière Win
33%
3.02
27%
3.74
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.52
1.34
RAAL La Louvière xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.34 for RAAL La Louvière, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 62 games, going 28W 15D 19L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, RAAL La Louvière sit at 1.50 PPG from 62 outings (24W 21D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.50 for RAAL La Louvière. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 17W 5D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, RAAL La Louvière have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (11W 10D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; RAAL La Louvière are on 1.32 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
RAAL La Louvière
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 28W 15D 19L in their last 62 games (1.60 PPG), while RAAL La Louvière have gone 24W 21D 17L in their last 62 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or RAAL La Louvière away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.87 PPG; RAAL La Louvière away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or RAAL La Louvière been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, RAAL La Louvière in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Zulte Waregem have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zulte Waregem won 4-0 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against RAAL La Louvière — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
3
Draws
0
RAAL La Louvière
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 3, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Zulte Waregem 4-0 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Zulte Waregem, 70% for RAAL La Louvière — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Zulte Waregem) and 60% (RAAL La Louvière). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / RAAL La Louvière away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play RAAL La Louvière?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Zulte Waregem's games and 70% of RAAL La Louvière's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 60% of RAAL La Louvière's.
Do Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, RAAL La Louvière in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zulte Waregem run riot with a 4-0 hammering of RAAL La Louvière.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat RAAL La Louvière 4-0 at Elindus Arena, Relegation Group - 34, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.19 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.34 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RAAL La Louvière landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 33% | Draw 27% | RAAL La Louvière 40%, with RAAL La Louvière to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 58%, RAAL La Louvière 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.60 PPG, RAAL La Louvière 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.