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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.45 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.04 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. RAAL La Louvière outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.02 / defence 1.24 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.80 / defence 1.06, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 47% | Draw 26% | RAAL La Louvière 27%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, RAAL La Louvière 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.78 PPG, RAAL La Louvière 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights