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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zulte Waregem cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over OH Leuven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zulte Waregem beat OH Leuven 2-0 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.14 xG and OH Leuven 1.14 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OH Leuven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.62 / defence 1.19 against OH Leuven attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 33% | Draw 35% | OH Leuven 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 66%, OH Leuven 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

OH Leuven's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights