Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host Lommel United at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zulte Waregem haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Lommel United — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lommel United haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lommel United's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Zulte Waregem) versus 2.20 (Lommel United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zulte Waregem, 3 for Lommel United and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Lommel United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zulte Waregem trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lommel United trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 61% and Lommel United 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 53% | Lommel United 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.53 xG and Lommel United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.966 / defence 0.991 | Lommel United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.323. Data: 30 Zulte Waregem games / 0 Lommel United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 47% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Lommel United 3.57. Zulte Waregem hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 50% | Lommel United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 47% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.53 / Lommel United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.966 / def 0.991 | Lommel United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Lommel United xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Elindus Arena.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 47% chance of winning, Lommel United a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
Record (6 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 2 | Lommel United 3W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Lommel United's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.93
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.65
1.11
Lommel United xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
6%
16.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.11 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 13W 9D 14L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. Zulte Waregem haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Lommel United's form line: 19W 8D 9L from 36 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. Lommel United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Lommel United are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 9W 5D 4L from 18 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.86 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Lommel United in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Pre-Season
Lommel United
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 19W 8D 9L in their last 36 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.56 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Lommel United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
3
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Lommel United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 50%, Lommel United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Zulte Waregem) and 61% (Lommel United).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Zulte Waregem's games and 61% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 61% of Lommel United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Lommel United tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.