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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as KVC Westerlo defy the odds to beat Zulte Waregem 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KVC Westerlo beat Zulte Waregem 0-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.69 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.33 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zulte Waregem fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.10 / defence 1.15 against KVC Westerlo attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 45% | Draw 26% | KVC Westerlo 29%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual KVC Westerlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 61%, KVC Westerlo 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with KVC Westerlo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights