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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zulte Waregem and KV Mechelen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Zulte Waregem and KV Mechelen drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.19 xG and KV Mechelen 1.16 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against KV Mechelen attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 33% | Draw 36% | KV Mechelen 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 69%, KV Mechelen 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

KV Mechelen's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights