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Dominant Zulte Waregem run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Gent.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zulte Waregem beat Gent 4-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.16 xG and Gent 1.27 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Gent attack 1.14 / defence 1.00, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 32% | Draw 31% | Gent 37%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 62%, Gent 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Gent's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Gent (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights