🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Zulte Waregem edge out Dender 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zulte Waregem beat Dender 2-1 at Elindus Arena, Relegation Group - 36, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG and Dender 1.08 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Dender attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 29% | Dender 34%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, Dender 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Dender's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights