Zulte Waregem 2-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zulte Waregem (37%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Zulte Waregem face Dender.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host Dender at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group - 36). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Zulte Waregem — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Zulte Waregem's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dender stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dender's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Zulte Waregem carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Zulte Waregem hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Dender and 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Apr 2026, ended Zulte Waregem 2–1 Dender — a Zulte Waregem win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Zulte Waregem and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Dender in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 62% and Dender 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 59% | Dender 56%). Note also that Dender surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Zulte Waregem recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG and Dender 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.852 / defence 1.068 | Dender attack 0.769 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Dender's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Zulte Waregem's last 30 games and Dender's last 60.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 29% | Dender 34%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.69 | Draw 3.47 | Dender 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zulte Waregem are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zulte Waregem 50% (last 10 home games) | Dender 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Group - 36 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 29% | Dender 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Zulte Waregem 1.15 / Dender 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.852 / def 1.068 | Dender attack 0.769 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Dender xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Dender FAQs
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Dender kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Dender kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 1 Dender.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Dender part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Dender is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Relegation Group - 36) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 37% chance of winning, Dender a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Dender will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.85) and Dender's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zulte Waregem's last 30 games and Dender's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
37%
2.69
29%
3.47
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.23
1.08
Dender xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Dender Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.08 for Dender, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 64 games, going 30W 15D 19L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Dender sit at 0.84 PPG from 64 outings (12W 18D 34L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Zulte Waregem carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Dender — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 18W 5D 8L across their last 31 home games, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Dender have taken 0.74 points per game from their last 31 away games (5W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.08 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
Dender
Current Season
Zulte Waregem (Home) vs Dender (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
Dender
Current Season
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Dender Form FAQs
What form are Zulte Waregem and Dender in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 30W 15D 19L in their last 64 games (1.64 PPG), while Dender have gone 12W 18D 34L in their last 64 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Dender away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.90 PPG; Dender away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2023. They cover more than one competition — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zulte Waregem have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Apr 2024, when Zulte Waregem won Dender 1-4 Zulte Waregem.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Dender specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
0
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Dender H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Dender?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Zulte Waregem have won 4, Dender have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Dender last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Zulte Waregem 2-1 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Dender?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 58%, Dender 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Zulte Waregem) and 61% (Dender). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dender in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Dender Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zulte Waregem and Dender matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Zulte Waregem's games and 64% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zulte Waregem and Dender matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 61% of Dender's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Dender matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 71% of Dender's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zulte Waregem edge out Dender 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Dender 2-1 at Elindus Arena, Relegation Group - 36, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG and Dender 1.08 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Dender attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 29% | Dender 34%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, Dender 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Dender's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.