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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat Dender 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zulte Waregem beat Dender 1-0 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.20 xG and Dender 1.23 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dender landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against Dender attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 35% | Draw 28% | Dender 36%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 60%, Dender 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Dender's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights