Zulte Waregem 1-2 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Club Brugge KV at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Zulte Waregem welcome Club Brugge KV to Elindus Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Elindus Arena this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Club Brugge KV stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Club Brugge KV have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zulte Waregem at 1.20 PPG versus Club Brugge KV's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Zulte Waregem have won 0, Club Brugge KV 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Zulte Waregem trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Club Brugge KV trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 59% versus Club Brugge KV 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 61% | Club Brugge KV 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.69 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.057 / defence 1.410 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.016 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.348. Data: 56 Zulte Waregem games / 56 Club Brugge KV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 34% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge KV 44%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Club Brugge KV 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Club Brugge KV as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 70% | Club Brugge KV 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 34% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge KV 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.69 / Club Brugge KV 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.057 / def 1.410 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.016 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Club Brugge KV xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 2 Club Brugge KV.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 34% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV?
Record (3 meetings): Zulte Waregem 0W | Draws 1 | Club Brugge KV 2W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Club Brugge KV (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 1.06x the league average against Club Brugge KV's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Club Brugge KV's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
34%
2.96
23%
4.41
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.62
1.93
Club Brugge KV xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
14%
6.90
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
5%
20.46
8%
12.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.93 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 13W 13D 30L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Club Brugge KV's form line: 32W 16D 8L from 56 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Club Brugge KV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Club Brugge KV are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (8W 6D 13L).
On the road, Club Brugge KV have gone 15W 6D 6L from 27 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Club Brugge KV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 1.93 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Club Brugge KV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 13W 13D 30L in their last 56 games (0.93 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 32W 16D 8L in their last 56 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Club Brugge KV's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.11 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Club Brugge KV have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when Club Brugge KV won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Club Brugge KV specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
5
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 0, Club Brugge KV have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Club Brugge KV 4-3 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 59%, Club Brugge KV 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Zulte Waregem and 59% for Club Brugge KV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Club Brugge KV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Zulte Waregem's games and 59% of Club Brugge KV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 59% of Club Brugge KV's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Club Brugge KV tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Club Brugge KV in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Club Brugge KV edge out Zulte Waregem 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat Zulte Waregem 1-2 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.69 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.93 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.06 / defence 1.41 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 34% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge KV 44%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 61%, Club Brugge KV 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.