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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zulte Waregem and Cercle Brugge share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zulte Waregem and Cercle Brugge finished level at 2-2 at Elindus Arena, Relegation Group - 31, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.08 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.65 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against Cercle Brugge attack 1.18 / defence 0.96, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 25% | Draw 24% | Cercle Brugge 51%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 58%, Cercle Brugge 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights