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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Zulte Waregem.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Anderlecht beat Zulte Waregem 2-4 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.64 xG and Anderlecht 0.99 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Anderlecht outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Anderlecht attack 0.76 / defence 1.39, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 52% | Draw 25% | Anderlecht 22%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Anderlecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, Anderlecht 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Anderlecht's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.65 PPG, Anderlecht 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights