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Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zulte Waregem.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Zulte Waregem 2-0 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.84 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.70 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.30 / defence 0.69 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.90 / defence 1.07, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 64% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 13%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 51%, Zulte Waregem 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.77. Form held, and they took the win. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights