Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face St. Truiden.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St. Truiden make the trip to Stade Joseph Marien to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Union St. Gilloise haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Marien: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.
St. Truiden's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. St. Truiden haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Union St. Gilloise's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 10 previous meetings, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–2 with St. Truiden winning.
The historical record gives Union St. Gilloise a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 45% versus St. Truiden 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 40% | St. Truiden 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.40 xG and St. Truiden 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.071 / defence 0.864 | St. Truiden attack 1.054 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.323. Data: 30 Union St. Gilloise games / 30 St. Truiden games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 41% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 32%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | St. Truiden 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 50% | St. Truiden 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 41% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.40 / St. Truiden 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.071 / def 0.864 | St. Truiden attack 1.054 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.21
St. Truiden xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stade Joseph Marien.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 41% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Record (10 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 7W | Draws 2 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.05x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
41%
2.41
26%
3.81
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.60
1.21
St. Truiden xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
8%
12.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.21 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 25W 11D 4L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. Union St. Gilloise haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
St. Truiden's form line: 22W 5D 13L from 40 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. St. Truiden haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.15 PPG for Union St. Gilloise against 1.78 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.80 PPG from 20 outings (18W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.15 PPG overall — Union St. Gilloise are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 9W 3D 8L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.52 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Pre-Season
St. Truiden
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 25W 11D 4L in their last 40 games (2.15 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 22W 5D 13L in their last 40 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or St. Truiden away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.80 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 2 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, St. Truiden have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when St. Truiden 2-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 35%, St. Truiden 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Union St. Gilloise) and 50% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; St. Truiden in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 55% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 50% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.