🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out St. Truiden 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat St. Truiden 2-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.23 xG and St. Truiden 0.94 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.15 / defence 0.87 against St. Truiden attack 0.99 / defence 1.28, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 64% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 12%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 59%, St. Truiden 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

St. Truiden's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights