🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Union St. Gilloise host RAAL La Louvière at Stade Joseph Marien in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Union St. Gilloise haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Stade Joseph Marien this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, RAAL La Louvière stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. RAAL La Louvière haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, RAAL La Louvière have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Union St. Gilloise have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 0 for RAAL La Louvière and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Union St. Gilloise trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

RAAL La Louvière trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 44% versus RAAL La Louvière 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 36% | RAAL La Louvière 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.47 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.079 / defence 0.849 | RAAL La Louvière attack 1.011 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.323. Data: 30 Union St. Gilloise games / 30 RAAL La Louvière games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 45% | Draw 26% | RAAL La Louvière 29%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | RAAL La Louvière 3.45. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 50% | RAAL La Louvière 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights