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Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out OH Leuven 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat OH Leuven 1-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.91 xG and OH Leuven 0.77 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union St. Gilloise fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.20 / defence 0.92 against OH Leuven attack 0.77 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 12%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 59%, OH Leuven 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

OH Leuven's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights