🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over KVC Westerlo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat KVC Westerlo 2-0 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 3.11 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.27 xG, a combined 4.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.1 short of their projected output. KVC Westerlo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.49 / defence 0.70 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.58 / defence 1.49, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 73% | Draw 15% | KVC Westerlo 11%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 52%, KVC Westerlo 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights