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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV finished level at 2-2 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.53 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Club Brugge KV outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.14 / defence 0.88 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.30 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 42% | Draw 33% | Club Brugge KV 26%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 57%, Club Brugge KV 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Club Brugge KV's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 1.91 PPG, Club Brugge KV 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights