🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cercle Brugge.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Cercle Brugge 2-0 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.77 xG and Cercle Brugge 0.67 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.37 / defence 0.68 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 62% | Draw 26% | Cercle Brugge 12%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 50%, Cercle Brugge 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights