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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Antwerp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Antwerp 5-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.41 xG and Antwerp 0.77 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Antwerp attack 0.82 / defence 0.79, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 50% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 18%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 60%, Antwerp 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Antwerp's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights