Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Anderlecht to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Mariën: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Anderlecht's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Union St. Gilloise) versus 1.70 (Anderlecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 43% versus Anderlecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 54% | Anderlecht 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.25 xG and Anderlecht 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.051 / defence 0.772 | Anderlecht attack 1.099 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.425. Anderlecht's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Union St. Gilloise games / 38 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 37% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 35%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Anderlecht 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Union St. Gilloise 30% | Anderlecht 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 37% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.25 / Anderlecht 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.051 / def 0.772 | Anderlecht attack 1.099 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Anderlecht xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 37% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
37%
2.67
27%
3.67
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.46
1.21
Anderlecht xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.21 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 28W 7D 9L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Anderlecht's form line: 23W 12D 9L from 44 games, 1.84 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.07 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 1.91 PPG from 22 outings (13W 3D 6L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 10W 6D 6L from 22 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 2.00 scored and 1.02 conceded. Anderlecht's attacking output running into Union St. Gilloise's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Anderlecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 28W 7D 9L in their last 44 games (2.07 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 23W 12D 9L in their last 44 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Anderlecht away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 1.91 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 41%, Anderlecht 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union St. Gilloise) and 54% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Anderlecht in 32%; Union St. Gilloise have failed to score in 27% of games; Anderlecht in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 46% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 54% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Anderlecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 2-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.25 xG and Anderlecht 1.21 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.05 / defence 0.77 against Anderlecht attack 1.10 / defence 0.77, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 37% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 35%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 54%, Anderlecht 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Anderlecht's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.07 PPG, Anderlecht 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.