Union St. Gilloise 1-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Anderlecht to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 January 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Mariën: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Union St. Gilloise) versus 2.10 (Anderlecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 50% versus Anderlecht 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 67% | Anderlecht 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.29 xG and Anderlecht 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.203 / defence 0.962 | Anderlecht attack 1.300 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.480. Anderlecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Union St. Gilloise games / 24 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 26% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 50%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Anderlecht 2.00. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Anderlecht 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 26% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.29 / Anderlecht 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.203 / def 0.962 | Anderlecht attack 1.300 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Anderlecht xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 26% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
26%
3.84
24%
4.16
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.14
1.85
Anderlecht xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
16%
6.36
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
4%
24.45
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.85 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.25 PPG on a 17W 3D 4L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht's form line: 11W 9D 4L from 24 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Anderlecht.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.08 PPG from 12 outings (8W 1D 3L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 6W 4D 2L from 12 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 2.17 scored and 1.21 conceded. Anderlecht's attacking output running into Union St. Gilloise's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht in 62%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 17W 3D 4L in their last 24 games (2.25 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 11W 9D 4L in their last 24 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Anderlecht away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.08 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 50%, Anderlecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Union St. Gilloise and 58% for Anderlecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Anderlecht in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 50% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 58% of Anderlecht's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union St. Gilloise defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 1-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.29 xG and Anderlecht 1.85 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Anderlecht landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.20 / defence 0.96 against Anderlecht attack 1.30 / defence 0.94, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 26% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 50%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 67%, Anderlecht 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Anderlecht's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.75. Form held, and they took the win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.