Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Anderlecht to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 July 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Union St. Gilloise haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Mariën: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Anderlecht haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Anderlecht's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Union St. Gilloise) versus 1.50 (Anderlecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 73% and Anderlecht 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 67% | Anderlecht 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.66 xG and Anderlecht 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.058 / defence 0.937 | Anderlecht attack 0.999 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.379. Data: 34 Union St. Gilloise games / 33 Anderlecht games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 45% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 29%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Anderlecht 3.45. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Anderlecht 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jul 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 45% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.66 / Anderlecht 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.058 / def 0.937 | Anderlecht attack 0.999 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Anderlecht xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 July 2023 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 45% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.92
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.95
1.29
Anderlecht xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
6%
18.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.29 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 21W 7D 5L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. Union St. Gilloise haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Anderlecht's form line: 13W 7D 13L from 33 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. Anderlecht haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Anderlecht.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.19 PPG from 16 outings (11W 2D 3L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 7W 3D 6L from 16 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.48 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Pre-Season
Anderlecht
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 21W 7D 5L in their last 33 games (2.12 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 13W 7D 13L in their last 33 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Anderlecht away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.19 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Anderlecht see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 56%, Anderlecht 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Union St. Gilloise) and 44% (Anderlecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Anderlecht in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 44% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 44% of Anderlecht's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 2-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.66 xG and Anderlecht 1.29 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Anderlecht landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against Anderlecht attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 45% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 29%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 67%, Anderlecht 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.