Standard Liege vs OH Leuven – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Standard Liege's attack at 0.76x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
47%
2.12
36%
2.78
17%
5.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.06
0.73
OH Leuven xG
2.12
47%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
5.94
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
4%
22.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.73 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.