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Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out Kortrijk 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Standard Liege beat Kortrijk 1-0 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.64 xG and Kortrijk 0.84 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.73 / defence 0.85 against Kortrijk attack 0.90 / defence 1.38, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 53% | Draw 31% | Kortrijk 16%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 45%, Kortrijk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Standard Liege's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Kortrijk's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.10 PPG, Kortrijk 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights