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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Standard Liege and Dender share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Regular Season - 2, as Standard Liege and Dender drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.57 xG and Dender 1.08 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Dender attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 45% | Draw 32% | Dender 23%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 29%, Dender 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Standard Liege's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Dender's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.20 PPG, Dender 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dender (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights