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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Standard Liege cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charleroi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Standard Liege beat Charleroi 3-1 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.32 xG and Charleroi 1.33 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Standard Liege beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Charleroi attack 1.13 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 35% | Draw 30% | Charleroi 35%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 33%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Standard Liege's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Charleroi's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.15 PPG, Charleroi 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights