Standard Liege 1-2 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 34% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Standard Liege welcome Antwerp to Maurice Dufrasnestadion in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group - 34). Kick-off is Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Standard Liege have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Standard Liege's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Antwerp — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Antwerp have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Standard Liege carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Antwerp have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Standard Liege.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Mar 2026, ended Standard Liege 1–1 Antwerp — a draw.
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Standard Liege trading profile (last 73 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Antwerp trading profile (last 73 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 37% versus Antwerp 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 36% | Antwerp 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 0.86 xG and Antwerp 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.788 / defence 0.910 | Antwerp attack 0.737 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Standard Liege's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Antwerp's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Standard Liege's last 60 games and Antwerp's last 60.
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 33% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 34%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 3.06 | Draw 2.99 | Antwerp 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Standard Liege's lower xG of 0.86 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), but Standard Liege carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Antwerp 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Standard Liege (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Standard Liege's last 10 home games and Antwerp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Standard Liege 50% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 34 | Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 33% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Standard Liege 0.86 / Antwerp 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.788 / def 0.910 | Antwerp attack 0.737 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Antwerp xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Standard Liege vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does Standard Liege vs Antwerp kick off?
Standard Liege vs Antwerp kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Standard Liege 1 - 2 Antwerp.
Where is Standard Liege vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Antwerp part of?
Standard Liege vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Group - 34) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 33% chance of winning, Antwerp a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Standard Liege and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Standard Liege vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Standard Liege's attack rating (0.79) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Standard Liege's last 60 games and Antwerp's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
33%
3.06
33%
2.99
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
1.75
0.89
Antwerp xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 15.4 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Standard Liege vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Standard Liege and 0.89 for Antwerp, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 23W 23D 27L from 73 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 23W 21D 29L across 73 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.26 PPG, Antwerp on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 10W 13D 12L from their last 35 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 8W 13D 14L across their last 35 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.25 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
Standard Liege (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Standard Liege
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Standard Liege vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are Standard Liege and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 23W 23D 27L in their last 73 games (1.26 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 23W 21D 29L in their last 73 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Antwerp away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.23 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Antwerp in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from January 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Standard Liege have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Nov 2023, when Antwerp won Antwerp 6-0 Standard Liege.
Standard Liege's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
2
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Standard Liege vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Antwerp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Standard Liege have won 3, Antwerp have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Standard Liege 1-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 46%, Antwerp 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Standard Liege and 26% for Antwerp.
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 37% of games; Antwerp in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Standard Liege vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Standard Liege and Antwerp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 43% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Standard Liege and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Standard Liege's recent games and 26% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 51% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 71% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out Standard Liege 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Standard Liege 1-2 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Conference League Group - 34, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 0.86 xG and Antwerp 0.89 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Antwerp outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.79 / defence 0.91 against Antwerp attack 0.74 / defence 0.82, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 33% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 34%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 36%, Antwerp 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.26 PPG, Antwerp 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.