🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out Antwerp 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Standard Liege beat Antwerp 1-0 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.12 xG and Antwerp 0.93 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Antwerp attack 0.70 / defence 0.92, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 38% | Draw 34% | Antwerp 28%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 32%, Antwerp 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Standard Liege's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Antwerp's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.14 PPG, Antwerp 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights