Standard Liege 0-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Anderlecht travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 September 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Standard Liege — All Games: 4W 1D 2L from 7 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.86 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Standard Liege have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Standard Liege at Stade Maurice Dufrasne this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 1.86 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Maurice Dufrasne this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Anderlecht have recorded 3W 1D 2L from 6 outings — 1.67 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Standard Liege at 1.86 PPG versus Anderlecht's 1.67. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Standard Liege register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Anderlecht in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Standard Liege in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 33% versus Anderlecht 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 50% | Anderlecht 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.17 xG and Anderlecht 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.911 / defence 1.230 | Anderlecht attack 0.733 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.516. Data: 7 Standard Liege games / 6 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 32% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 41%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Anderlecht 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 67% | Anderlecht 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 32% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Standard Liege 1.17 / Anderlecht 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.911 / def 1.230 | Anderlecht attack 0.733 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.516 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Anderlecht xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Anderlecht kick off?
Standard Liege vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Anderlecht?
Standard Liege 0 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Standard Liege vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Anderlecht part of?
Standard Liege vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 32% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Standard Liege and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Standard Liege and Anderlecht in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.57 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Standard Liege's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.76
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.54
1.37
Anderlecht xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.37 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 4W 0D 2L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Standard Liege, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Anderlecht's form line: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 2.00 PPG, Anderlecht on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Standard Liege are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 2.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht in 67%.
Defensively: Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Early Season
Anderlecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Have Standard Liege or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Standard Liege and Anderlecht runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Anderlecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Standard Liege's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Standard Liege
3
Draws
4
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Anderlecht?
From 9 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 2, Anderlecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Standard Liege 2-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 33%, Anderlecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Standard Liege) and 67% (Anderlecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 67% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Standard Liege's matches and 67% of Anderlecht's.
Do Standard Liege and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Anderlecht edge out Standard Liege 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Standard Liege 0-1 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.17 xG and Anderlecht 1.37 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Standard Liege fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.91 / defence 1.23 against Anderlecht attack 0.73 / defence 1.07, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 32% | Draw 27% | Anderlecht 41%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 50%, Anderlecht 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Anderlecht's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 2.00 PPG, Anderlecht 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Anderlecht managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.