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Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over St. Truiden.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat St. Truiden 1-3 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.07 xG and Union St. Gilloise 0.95 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.78 / defence 0.76, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 38% | Draw 31% | Union St. Gilloise 32%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 60%, Union St. Gilloise 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.51. Form held, and they took the win. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights