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Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Standard Liege 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat Standard Liege 1-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.52 xG and Standard Liege 1.05 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Standard Liege landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Standard Liege attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 47% | Draw 28% | Standard Liege 25%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 59%, Standard Liege 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Standard Liege's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.27 PPG, Standard Liege 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights