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Shock result as Standard Liege defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Standard Liege beat St. Truiden 1-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.42 xG and Standard Liege 0.76 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Standard Liege outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Standard Liege attack 0.62 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 50% | Draw 33% | Standard Liege 17%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Standard Liege win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 48%, Standard Liege 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Standard Liege's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.23 PPG, Standard Liege 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights