St. Truiden 2-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours OH Leuven (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St. Truiden face OH Leuven.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as St. Truiden welcome OH Leuven to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OH Leuven's away record: 1W 7D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. OH Leuven's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of St. Truiden's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. St. Truiden register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, OH Leuven in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, St. Truiden have won 0, OH Leuven 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 56% versus OH Leuven 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 44% | OH Leuven 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.14 xG and OH Leuven 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.917 / defence 1.229 | OH Leuven attack 0.830 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.174. Data: 36 St. Truiden games / 36 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 34% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 37%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | OH Leuven 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OH Leuven at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OH Leuven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: St. Truiden 60% | OH Leuven 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 34% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG St. Truiden 1.14 / OH Leuven 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.917 / def 1.229 | OH Leuven attack 0.830 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.20
OH Leuven xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kick off?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
St. Truiden 2 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven part of?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 34% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both St. Truiden and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
Record (6 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 4 | OH Leuven 2W.
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. OH Leuven (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.92x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
34%
2.94
29%
3.45
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.33
1.20
OH Leuven xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.20 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 13W 17D 16L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OH Leuven's form line: 13W 15D 18L from 46 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.22 PPG, OH Leuven on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (10W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 3W 10D 10L from 23 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.17 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
OH Leuven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 13W 17D 16L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or OH Leuven away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.65 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and OH Leuven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 52%, OH Leuven 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (St. Truiden) and 44% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; OH Leuven in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of St. Truiden's games and 61% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of St. Truiden's recent games and 44% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and OH Leuven tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat OH Leuven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat OH Leuven 2-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.14 xG and OH Leuven 1.20 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.92 / defence 1.23 against OH Leuven attack 0.83 / defence 0.81, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 34% | Draw 29% | OH Leuven 37%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual St. Truiden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 44%, OH Leuven 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.22 PPG, OH Leuven 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.