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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant KVC Westerlo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of St. Truiden.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KVC Westerlo beat St. Truiden 0-3 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 2.58 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.05 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 2.6 short of their projected output. KVC Westerlo outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.04 / defence 1.47, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 69% | Draw 19% | KVC Westerlo 12%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a KVC Westerlo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 60%, KVC Westerlo 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.31 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KVC Westerlo win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights