🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant St. Truiden run riot with a 3-0 hammering of KV Mechelen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat KV Mechelen 3-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Championship Group - 40, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.60 xG and KV Mechelen 1.38 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KV Mechelen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against KV Mechelen attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 43% | Draw 24% | KV Mechelen 33%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 59%, KV Mechelen 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

KV Mechelen's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.45 PPG, KV Mechelen 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights