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Dominant Kortrijk run riot with a 0-3 hammering of St. Truiden.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat St. Truiden 0-3 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Relegation Round - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 2.07 xG and Kortrijk 1.27 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Kortrijk outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.12 / defence 1.14 against Kortrijk attack 1.01 / defence 1.26, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 54% | Draw 24% | Kortrijk 21%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Kortrijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 51%, Kortrijk 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Kortrijk's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.17 PPG, Kortrijk 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights