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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Kortrijk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat Kortrijk 4-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.77 xG and Kortrijk 1.10 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kortrijk outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.99 / defence 1.16 against Kortrijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.24, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 50% | Draw 30% | Kortrijk 20%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 51%, Kortrijk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Kortrijk's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.11 PPG, Kortrijk 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights