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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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St. Truiden and Gent share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden and Gent finished level at 1-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Championship Group - 38, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.56 xG and Gent 1.56 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against Gent attack 1.11 / defence 1.11, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 38% | Draw 24% | Gent 38%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 59%, Gent 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Gent's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.48 PPG, Gent 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights