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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gent.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat Gent 3-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.45 xG and Gent 1.14 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Gent attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 40% | Draw 34% | Gent 26%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 64%, Gent 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Gent's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.14 PPG, Gent 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. Gent (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights