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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Club Brugge KV edge out St. Truiden 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Club Brugge KV beat St. Truiden 1-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Championship Group - 32, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.36 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.75 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.23 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 30% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge KV 47%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 60%, Club Brugge KV 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Club Brugge KV's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.46. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights