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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat Club Brugge KV 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat Club Brugge KV 3-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.00 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.01 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Club Brugge KV outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.04 / defence 1.03 against Club Brugge KV attack 0.92 / defence 0.76, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 34% | Draw 32% | Club Brugge KV 34%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 60%, Club Brugge KV 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Club Brugge KV's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with St. Truiden winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights