🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV finished level at 2-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.13 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.67 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.31 / defence 0.83, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 23% | Draw 30% | Club Brugge KV 47%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 49%, Club Brugge KV 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Club Brugge KV's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights