St. Truiden 2-2 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Club Brugge KV at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Club Brugge KV make the trip to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to face St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Club Brugge KV's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Club Brugge KV have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Club Brugge KV are 1.70 PPG clear of St. Truiden in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (2.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — St. Truiden register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Club Brugge KV in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — St. Truiden lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–7 with Club Brugge KV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Club Brugge KV half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 62% and Club Brugge KV 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 49% | Club Brugge KV 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.13 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.885 / defence 1.145 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.306 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.116. Club Brugge KV have an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 St. Truiden games / 55 Club Brugge KV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 23% | Draw 30% | Club Brugge KV 47%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Club Brugge KV 2.13. Club Brugge KV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Club Brugge KV are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 70% | Club Brugge KV 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 23% | Draw 30% | Club Brugge KV 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG St. Truiden 1.13 / Club Brugge KV 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.885 / def 1.145 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.306 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Club Brugge KV xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
St. Truiden 2 - 2 Club Brugge KV.
Where is St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV part of?
St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 23% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV?
Record (5 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 2 | Club Brugge KV 2W.
What form are St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Club Brugge KV (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (0.89) and Club Brugge KV's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Club Brugge KV's attack (1.31x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
23%
4.31
30%
3.38
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.80
1.67
Club Brugge KV xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
4%
22.83
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.67 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St. Truiden come into this having played 65 games, going 18W 22D 25L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Club Brugge KV sit at 1.94 PPG from 65 outings (36W 18D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Club Brugge KV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Club Brugge KV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
St. Truiden's home form reads 13W 12D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Club Brugge KV have taken 1.72 points per game from 32 outings (16W 7D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 2.11 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Club Brugge KV in 62%.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Club Brugge KV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 18W 22D 25L in their last 65 games (1.17 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 36W 18D 11L in their last 65 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Club Brugge KV's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.59 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 1.72 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Club Brugge KV have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Club Brugge KV won 7-0 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Club Brugge KV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Club Brugge KV have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Club Brugge KV 2-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 59%, Club Brugge KV 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (St. Truiden) and 66% (Club Brugge KV).
On the defensive side: Club Brugge KV in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Club Brugge KV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of St. Truiden's games and 62% of Club Brugge KV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Club Brugge KV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of St. Truiden's recent games and 66% of Club Brugge KV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Club Brugge KV in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden and Club Brugge KV finished level at 2-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.13 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.67 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.31 / defence 0.83, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 23% | Draw 30% | Club Brugge KV 47%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 49%, Club Brugge KV 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.